Predictions for the Year (well, sort of)

Since the whole point of the Junkyard Dog philosophy is to be prepared, aware, and decisive, I thought now would be a good time to post a few personal predictions for the new year. As with most of the postings that will appear here, the idea is to get the reader to think about what may be coming down the road, to evaluate how it may affect their own situation and then devise a basic plan to deal with the problem. For our purposes, this is actually more important than accurately predicting the future, which is not something I can claim to do.

So, let's look at this posting as an exersize in playing the "what if" game.

As we examined in the previous post, I think terrorists will continue to probe security surrounding commercial flights. They will continue their efforts to bring down at least one commercial airliner, and if they are successful they will repeat the same drill in numerous other places. We have to remember that the purpose of a terrorist is to actually influence the actions and policies of governments by terrorizing the people under the control of those governments.
To the true terrorist, changing government policy is at least as important as a body count.

I haven't seen much from our security agencies to suggest that government-sponsored security measures, such as monitoring no-fly lists or screening passengers, are completely secure and effective. To be fair to the people actually charged with screening passengers, I'm sure they do the best they can, but the problem lies more with the politicians and bureaucrats who set policy and determine procedures. This means that as individual junkyard dogs, we must take up the slack. We must be observant, and question things that don't appear to be "right" and act decisively when it's approriate.

In 2009 we saw the most significant attack on US soil since September 11, 2001, when an islamist terrorist who is also a US Army officer opened fire in a crowded room at Fort Hood, Texas. There have been similar events before, but they seemed to have been conducted by angry, crazy people, such as the shootings at Columbine High School, or Virginia Tech. The Fort Hood shootings were motivated by ideology. We have to assume that terrorists will once again, try to copy their success at Fort Hood by staging other shootings, but let's not forget about the crazies either; getting shot by a crazy teenager is just as dangerous as getting shot by a terrorist. Fortunately, 48 of the 50 states allow some form of concealed or open carry of a handgun by law abiding civilian gun owners, and these citizens have a long history of successfully defending themselves from common criminals. (Just pick up any issue of the NRA's American Rifleman magazine and turn to the Armed Citizen column to read newspaper reports.) I think at some point, we will see armed citizens caught up in a terrorist shooting, and having to keep a lid on things until SWAT shows up.

As usual, nature will send us floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, hot weather, cold weather, and flooding. What is the most likely incident in your area? Are you prepared to either hunker down and ride out the storm, or bug out before the flood waters rise? A little sensible planning and preparation can go a long way.

I can almost predict one thing: whatever we think is going to happen, may happen, but the unexpected is almost a certainty. We have to constantly be looking around us, evaluating information, trying to find what is important and what isn't; and that is the real challenge.